TL;DR
Get the little things that make your day delivered free — and shop member deals
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Access to Prime Big Deal Days deals on October 6–7
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
Tom Wojcik’s September 26 report traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil prices and fuel availability to fertiliser, harvests and European heating. The figures he cites point to mounting pressure, but the duration of the closure, the scale of future food shortages and the effects on winter energy supplies remain uncertain.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik’s September 26 report connects the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz to rising oil prices, fuel disruptions and risks to food and winter heating supplies. The account describes how a single shipping chokepoint can transmit pressure across markets and borders, while the scale and duration of those effects remain uncertain.
Wojcik says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, he reports, citing the International Energy Agency’s description of the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. Brent crude, after a fragile ceasefire briefly pulled prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, reached about $108 a barrel on September 24.
The report follows the shock into shipping and retail fuel. It says the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September, while day rates for some supertankers reached about $860,000 on September 10. Wojcik notes the fund is small and its manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens. In France, official figures showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage; Wojcik attributes many local gaps to customers flocking to TotalEnergies stations with a price cap.
Food and energy pressures may take longer to show. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Wojcik also describes a smaller European potato crop after reduced planting, heatwaves and drought, alongside concerns about gas stocks and winter heating in Europe.
From Oil Routes to Household Costs
The report’s central point is that disruption to one route can affect several systems at once. Higher oil and shipping costs can raise the cost of transport and fuel, while fertiliser shortages can affect harvests months later. For European households, the risks include pressure on food prices and the cost or availability of winter energy. These effects are not all established outcomes: the food impact is a warning about future yields, and the eventual effect on heating depends on how the energy supply situation develops.
Wojcik frames Poland’s exposure through its reliance on coal and imported gas, its proximity to the war in Ukraine and its borrowing to fund defence. That perspective helps explain why he treats events in the Gulf as connected to domestic security and living costs. His report is one writer’s synthesis of cited figures, rather than a separate official assessment of the combined risks.
A Fragile Ceasefire and New Routes
According to Wojcik, a ceasefire briefly eased prices in early summer before breaking down. On September 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the American naval blockade. The report says Washington rejected the proposal. It also describes the Bab al-Mandab, another Red Sea chokepoint, as a potential point of pressure after Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month.
The article places the Gulf crisis alongside the war in Ukraine. It cites the IEA as saying Ukrainian drones hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, contributing to low refining output and Russian restrictions on fuel exports. The report says US diesel passed $6 a gallon on September 10. Together, these developments illustrate why disruptions to shipping and refining can affect fuel markets beyond the immediate conflict zone.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as summarized in Tom Wojcik’s report
How Long the Disruption Lasts
The report does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen or whether a ceasefire can be restored. Iran’s proposal was rejected, and the article cites a report that the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections; that expectation is an attributed report, not a confirmed future action. The amount of fertiliser that will be unavailable, the resulting harvest losses and the number of people who may face acute food insecurity also remain uncertain.
Some figures describe specific dates or market measures rather than a settled trend. France’s station outages were a snapshot on September 20, and the report says the official count omits stations that still have some fuel grades available. It also notes that the tanker fund’s dramatic annual gain came from a small fund and could reverse if shipping through the strait resumes.
Signals to Watch Before Winter
The next indicators are whether shipping through Hormuz resumes, whether negotiations produce a lasting ceasefire and how oil prices respond. For food supplies, the report points to fertiliser availability and harvest results later in 2026 and in 2027. In Europe, gas storage levels and the reliability of imports will help clarify the risk to winter heating. Wojcik’s account says these pressures are developing together, but their eventual reach will depend on what happens to the strait and the conflicts around it.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic and contributing to pressure on oil, fuel, fertiliser and energy supplies.
What did Iran propose to Washington?
Wojcik says Iran submitted a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. His report says Washington rejected it.
Does the report say France is running out of fuel?
No. It reports that 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, while the French government ruled out a national shortage. The reported local outages were concentrated at TotalEnergies stations with capped prices.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warning cited by Wojcik says shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; the eventual impact is not yet clear.
What remains uncertain for Europe this winter?
The duration of the Hormuz closure, the availability of imported energy and the level of European gas supplies will shape winter heating risks. Wojcik raises those concerns but does not establish how severe any shortage or price impact will be.
Source: hn
NFL season / tailgating Picks
team gear
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
